he Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Barack Obama attracting 46% of the vote while John McCain earns 42%. When leaners are included, Obama now leads 48% to 45%. Leaners are survey respondents who initially do not favor either candidate but indicate their support on a follow-up question. One week ago today, McCain had the edge over Obama, 46% to 43%.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll is based upon interviews with 1,000 Likely Voters each night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. This is the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted since Obama clinched the nomination. The results suggest a modest bounce for Obama in recent days. On Tuesday morning, Obama and McCain were tied. A week ago, McCain had a three-point advantage (see recent daily results).
Obamas bounce is primarily the result of Democrats beginning to unify behind his candidacy. For the first time all year, Obama is supported by 80% of Democrats over McCain. In recent months, his support from Democrats has typically been in the high-60s or low-70s range.
McCain is supported by 84% of Republicans and holds an eight-point lead among unaffiliated voters. The bad news for McCain is that there are a lot more Democrats than Republicans. Obamas party now enjoys a ten-percentage point advantage in terms of party identification. See other recent demographic observations.
Both men are viewed favorably by 55% of voters nationwide. Forty-two percent (42%) have an unfavorable opinion of Obama while 43% offer a negative assessment of McCain. However, opinions are more strongly held about Obama. Thirty-three percent (33%) have a Very Favorable opinion of the presumptive Democratic nominee while 28% hold a Very Unfavorable opinion of him. For McCain, 18% have a Very Favorable opinion and 20% hold a Very Unfavorable opinion (see daily results).
Tracking Poll results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern.
There is little enthusiasm for John McCain reaching across party lines to select Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman as his running mate. Just 18% of all votersand only 19% of Republicanssay McCain should take such a step. An Obama-Clinton ticket narrowly defeats a McCain-Lieberman ticket in current polling.
Other recent polling shows that 41% of voters believe that Obama is too inexperienced to be President while 30% say McCain is too old. Fifty-one percent (51%) of Democrats believe Hillary Clinton should be named as Obamas Vice-Presidential running mate. Additionally, 78% of all voters say they could vote for an African-American for President. But, only 56% believe their family, friends and co-workers are willing to do the same. Economic issues have muscled past national security issues as a voter concern with significant implications for Election 2008. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of Americans say that talks with Iran should not take place until that nation stops developing nuclear weapons.
Voters see a clear distinction between the two leading candidates on the issue of Iraq. Eighty-one percent (81%) say Obama is more interested in getting troops home from Iraq than finishing the mission. Seventy-four percent (74%) say that McCain is more interested in finishing the mission (crosstabs available for Premium Members). An earlier survey found that 52% of voters say getting the troops home is the higher priority.
Forty-three percent (43%) of voters say McCain is a better leader than Obama while 38% hold the opposite view. When asked which candidate has personal values closer to their own, 43% name McCain and 42% say Obama (crosstabs available for Premium Members).
Forty-four percent (44%) trust McCain most when it comes to economic issues and managing the economy while 40% prefer Obama. On national security issues such as the War in Iraq and the War on Terrorism, 51% have more trust in McCain while 37% prefer Obama (crosstabs available for Premium Members).
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When leaners are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Data from Rasmussen Markets gives Democrats a 63.0 % chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants).
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.