WITH THE clock racing towards the inauguration of the 44th president of the United States (US), Jamaicans and others around the Caribbean are still looking at the possible impact of America's first African-American leader on the region.

And while it is widely accepted that the election of Barack Obama will not lead to an open bag of goodies across the region, the fire continues to burn that the Caribbean will make it on to the radar of the new president.

"Persons expecting special favours for the region will be disappointed," university professor Trevor Munroe told The Sunday Gleaner.

US policy has fluctuated

It is widely accepted that US policy towards Jamaica and the wider Caribbean has fluctuated between disinterest and obsession over the years.

The policy has been based on a collection of reasons, including security (protecting its borders), ideology (keeping out communism), politics and economics.

Over the last eight years, outgoing president George W. Bush has emphasised all of the above, providing millions of dollars for drug interdiction, interfering in Haiti's domestic politics, maintaining the embargo on Cuba while paying little regard to the proposed Free Trade Area of the Americas.

Now it is Obama's time to bat, but officials of the US State Department have already made it clear that there will be no major change in policy.

Late last year, Charles Shapiro, US State Department senior coordinator for the Western Hemisphere Affairs Free Trade Task Force, declared that the new president would offer continuity in American policy towards Latin America and the Caribbean.

Addressing the Americas Competitive Forum in Atlanta, Shapiro said the US vision for the region would remain one of "more prosperous, stable countries, with inclusive, representative democracies with open economies delivering the benefits of good governance to their citizens".

America's 'third border'

That underscored the position of the Obama camp in the lead-up to last year's presidential election, which seemed to recognise the importance of America's 'third border'.

Dan Restrepo, a foreign-policy adviser for the Obama camp, had declared: "Obama wants to see a 100 per cent debt cancellation for the world's heavily indebted, poor countries, including all such countries in the Caribbean."

Restrepo added that the issues of crime and security were of major concern for the Democrat. It was also promised that Obama would "restore funding for drug-control programmes that were cut by the George W. Bush administration" and would "put an end to the illegal gun trade in the south".

That is welcome news for Munroe, who believes that with the Caribbean as the US 'third border', Obama must make new and substantial commitments to help deal with criminal organisations which transit drugs through the region and feed criminal gangs, which makes the Caribbean the region with the highest murder rate in the world.

"After 9/11 2001, the US transferred a great many of its security assets from the Caribbean to the Middle East, in search of terrorists, and they forget that some of these criminal enterprises that we have can mutate and morph into terrorists too," Munroe added.

Needs to avoid major mistake

For Munroe, the new president needs to avoid one major mistake of his predecessors:

"Obama needs to move expeditiously to normalise relations with Cuba. Ten (US) presidents have maintained the embargo, which the world has repeatedly condemned through the General Assembly of the United Nations," Munroe said.

He wants Obama to dust off and re-examine the Caribbean Basin Initiative, implemented by former president, Ronald Reagan, and the Free Trade Area of the Americas, which was put on the front burner by the Bill Clinton administration.

Obama will assist

Local businessman Dr Lloyd Cole is confident that Obama will assist the region and he has not identified any single policy for the soon-to-be-installed president to rethink.

"I believe that Obama is shrewd and energetic and will bring a lot to the US, the region and the world.

"Obama should emulate the best of the great US presidents, such as (Abraham) Lincoln, (John F.) Kennedy and (Bill) Clinton," Dr Cole added.

Kennedy introduced a bold US$10-billion foreign-aid programme to Latin America in 1961.

The programme, 'Alliance For Progress', was aimed at fostering development, supporting social and land reforms and reinforcing democracy in the region.

High marks for Carter

Another former US president, Jimmy Carter, also received high marks from regional scholars for his efforts to promote democracy and his launch of the Caribbean Group for Cooperation in Economic Development.

The change in policies towards the Caribbean Basin, from Carter to Ronald Reagan, was dramatic.

While Carter started with an interest to promote democracy then shifted to national security, Reagan moved in the opposite direction.

Reagan adopted a very confrontational approach to Grenada during that country's internal revolution and, in 1983, he joined with Jamaica and five other countries to invade the island.

Promoting democracy

However, Reagan's administration also fashioned the Caribbean Basin Initiative and institutions to promote democracy.

George H.W. Bush adopted a less-ideological and belligerent approach to that of his predecessor, but still, his administration intervened in Panama in 1989.

The Bill Clinton administration, which replaced Bush, intervened in Haiti in 1994, however, it appeared very willing to listen to regional concerns.

In fact, Clinton was the only president in the last few years to travel to the region to meet with CARICOM leaders. That occurred in Barbados in 1997.